Thursday, April 29, 2010

Stock Trading and Football, Almost the Same

There are people who never invest. They have no money in the stock market and never will. They don't understand football (the markets) so they choose not to understand.

- You have the people in the stands that probably have a few mutual funds, or bonds. They often watch the action on the field and dream of what it would be like to be out there playing (trading). They will live vicariously by reading news about how things went or listen to analysts and hang on their every word.

- Then there are the people closer to the field, they are on the sidelines. They will occasionally get in the game, when they see the need to make a play. They too will watch the players on the field and wish they were out there playing. You might even see them practicing (paper trading) on the sidelines for the eventual big play they hope to make.

- Finally, you've got the first team, the ones on the field, in the game (market professionals).

If you've ever watched a football game, even for 5 minutes, you've probably seen that it's not 100% action all the time. The players will huddle up and discuss the next play; we are in a huddle right now. We're still on the field and we can get started at any moment, but for the time being, we are patiently going over the game plan and waiting to see what play is going to work best. We have to guess what our opponent (the market) is going to do next before we can call a play. We have the advantage because we have their playbook (the charts) and we have an inside track on what we think they are going to do next by reading the charts so we can defend ourselves against them.

In a football game, there are often setbacks. A team may fumble the ball, or get tackled for a loss (get caught in stocks that gap down). But a winning team always gets back up, thinks about the next play and then executes it. Their drive continues and they eventually score. They don't quit because they have been sacked. They learn from there mistakes and take measures to try and not have it happen again.

Once again, it's all about consistency, the team that has the ability to consistently move the ball down the field and score (winning trade) will eventually win the game. Sure, it's nice to have the occasional 100 yard run (100% gain) for a score, or the Hail Mary pass that is caught (lucky find) but, how often can you execute on plays like that?

A consistent offense that can move down the field play after play making 10 yard gains (10% gains on trades) is going to win the big games and have a winning record. Consistency is the name of the game, and a part of that is always staying on the field in the game and planning your next play. We are in a slower period in the stock market right now (the tough part of the schedule). We have had some easy times the past 9 months and now we are playing a tough team. We will eventually play easy teams in the future but we need to get past this tough team right now.

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